Overview

• The Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.00–4.25% last week, and markets now look to speeches by Jerome Powell, Stephen Miran and regional presidents for clues on additional moves before the Oct. 28–29 meeting.
• Newly confirmed Fed official Stephen Miran pushed for a larger cut and is promoting a 'Mar‑a‑Lago' framework of higher tariffs, a weaker dollar and lower U.S. debt costs, a push that so far lacks international coordination.
• Asian trading reflected the policy mix, with Japan and South Korea advancing as investors assessed the Fed outlook, while India’s tech sector faced pressure from a proposed $100,000 fee for new H‑1B visas and earlier tariff increases of up to 50%.
• Brazil’s Boletim Focus showed stable expectations for 2025—IPCA at 4.83%, GDP at 2.16%, Selic at 15% and the dollar at R$5.50—supporting the central bank’s cautious stance on rates.
• Brazilian markets weakened after the U.S. added Viviane Barci de Moraes to its Magnitsky sanctions list, lifting the dollar and long DI rates and pulling the Ibovespa lower, as Finance Minister Fernando Haddad reiterated that domestic interest rates should start a consistent, sustainable decline.