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1h ago

Fed-Cut Rally Stalls as Nvidia, PCE Loom and Trump Moves on Fed

Traders await Nvidia’s report alongside the PCE inflation gauge to validate September-cut odds.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 21, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
A man walks past a screen displaying Japan's Nikkei share average and exchange rate between Japanese yen and U.S. dollar outside a brokerage,in Tokyo, Japan, August 4, 2025. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo
A dealer watches computer monitors near the screens showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), left, the foreign exchange rate between U.S. dollar and South Korean won and the Korean Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (KOSDAQ) at a dealing room of Hana Bank in Seoul, South Korea, Monday, Aug. 25, 2025. (AP Photo/Lee Jin-man)
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Overview

  • U.S. stocks slipped Monday after Friday’s surge, with the Dow down 0.77%, the S&P 500 off 0.43% and the Nasdaq lower by 0.22%, as Treasury yields ticked up.
  • Futures still price roughly an 84% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, even as officials caution on tariff-driven inflation risks.
  • Major brokerages including Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank shifted forecasts to call for a quarter-point reduction next month, reflecting softer labor signals.
  • Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday are seen as a market catalyst given its heavy index weight and AI leadership, with investors watching any impact from its reported revenue-sharing arrangement with the U.S. government.
  • Political developments added uncertainty after President Trump said the U.S. will take about a 9.9% stake in Intel and moved to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, a step investors fear could test central bank independence and face legal challenges.