Fed Cut Looms as Brazil and Canada Hold Rates in Pivotal Week for Central Banks

Overview

• Policy meetings for the Federal Reserve, Brazil’s Copom and the Bank of Canada are set for Wednesday, December 10, concentrating market attention on a single day.
• Futures imply a better than 90% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed cut after signals from New York Fed President John Williams, even as divisions persist among officials over further easing.
• Brazil’s central bank is expected to keep the Selic at 15%, with traders parsing the statement for any softening that could flag when rate cuts might begin.
• Brazil’s Focus survey shows continued disinflation, with the median IPCA forecast at 4.40% for 2025 and 4.16% for 2026, while Selic projections hold at 15% for end-2025 and rise to 12.25% for end-2026.
• The Bank of Canada is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged, though markets are assigning a small probability to renewed tightening.