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Fed Cut Lifts Risk Appetite as Argentina’s Rally Meets FX Strains

Investors now weigh FX‑band stability, reserve rebuilding and near‑term rollovers.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, with Jerome Powell saying a December cut is not assured after markets had priced a high probability of easing.
  • Argentine equities and hard‑currency sovereign bonds extended post‑election gains, helped by a softer dollar and improved risk sentiment for emerging markets.
  • The wholesale dollar briefly climbed toward the band ceiling near ARS 1,495 on flows tied to the D31O5 dollar‑linked bond unwind and thin private FX supply, then eased as those pressures faded.
  • The Treasury’s first post‑election auction rolled about 57% of maturities, allocating ARS 6.867 trillion, as officials signal scope to reduce elevated short‑term rates.
  • The central bank outlined a plan that targets reserve purchases starting in 2026, while reports of a tailored peso instrument for U.S. Treasury‑linked investors remain unconfirmed.