Overview
- ADP reported a 32,000 decline in November private payrolls, the biggest drop in more than two and a half years, reinforcing a softer labor picture.
- Fed funds futures put the probability of a 25-basis-point cut next week near 87–90%, with Friday’s PCE inflation report seen as the key final input.
- U.S. equities closed higher, led by small caps, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped to about 4.07% as rate-cut expectations firmed.
- Asian markets delivered a mixed session, with Japan’s Nikkei higher and broader regional gauges tepid, as the dollar index fell to a roughly five-week low.
- Reports suggest Kevin Hassett is a leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell, prompting some bond investor concern about the potential for faster easing.