Overview
- Rate-futures pricing now implies roughly an 85–90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
- Reuters’ latest poll shows 82% of economists expect a quarter-point reduction, even as officials remain publicly divided.
- FOMC minutes from October detailed sharp internal splits over easing, and Chair Jerome Powell has warned a December cut is not a foregone conclusion.
- Private labor readings strengthened the easing case, with ADP reporting a November payroll decline and layoffs tallying near pandemic-era levels, while official jobs data were delayed by a 43-day shutdown.
- Markets are focused on Powell’s press conference for guidance on 2026 cuts, and traders also note reporting that President Trump has floated Kevin Hassett as a potential successor when Powell’s term ends.