Fed Cut and Brazil’s 15% Selic Draw Inflows to B3 as Real Firms and Ibovespa Tests 161,000

Overview

• The Ibovespa pushed toward the 160,000–161,000 range on Friday after a volatile Thursday, tracking record closes for the Dow and S&P 500 even as technology weakness capped gains.
• The real hovered near R$5.40 as the widened interest-rate differential—Fed’s third 25 bp cut versus Copom’s hawkish hold at 15%—supported foreign flows into Brazilian assets.
• IBGE reported services activity up 0.3% in October versus September, in line with forecasts, extending a nine-month streak of gains.
• Medium and long-term Brazilian DI rates and U.S. Treasury yields fell, with traders awaiting Copom minutes and the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Report next week for signals on when cuts could begin.
• Political risk stayed in focus with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy and the Dosimetria bill, while markets welcomed U.S. removal of Justice Alexandre de Moraes from a Magnitsky list.