Overview
- The Financial Conduct Authority has held informal discussions with trading platforms about easing the long‑standing retail ban on financial prediction contracts but has published no consultation, rule proposal or timetable.
- The ban that remains in force dates to April 2019 when the FCA prohibited retail binary options after finding persistent consumer losses and provider incentives that profited when customers lost.
- Industry participants have told the FCA that millions of UK users now trade on US and crypto-native sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket and that some consumers bypass blocks using virtual private networks, a claim the FCA has not independently verified.
- Regulatory responsibility in the UK is split: the FCA covers contracts tied to financial and some climate events while the Gambling Commission treats sports, political and other non-financial contracts as betting, which could force multi-product platforms to seek dual approvals.
- Any change would require formal FCA rulemaking and would likely include measures such as product classification, appropriateness or suitability checks, position limits, strict marketing controls and safeguards to ensure access to UK complaint and compensation routes.