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3h ago

Fast CME From New X‑Class Flare Could Merge With Earlier Eruption, Reaching Earth Nov. 11–12

Forecasters now track a rapid solar outflow expected to overtake a prior eruption, raising the risk of low‑level geomagnetic disturbance late Nov. 11–12.

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Overview

  • Solar scientists reported more than ten flares in the past 24 hours, including multiple X‑class events from active region 4274.
  • The latest flare peaked at X1.21 at 12:19 Moscow time on Nov. 10, according to Laboratory of Solar Astronomy head Sergey Bogachev.
  • Near‑Sun measurements estimate the new CME at at least 1,200 km/s versus about 720 km/s for the Nov. 9 eruption, making an overtake likely.
  • Coronagraph imagery shows a front‑directed outflow toward Earth, with labs at IKI RAS and ISTP SB RAS projecting a joint arrival around the night of Nov. 11–12.
  • Geomagnetic conditions remain quiet for now, with forecasters cautioning about possible minor to moderate disturbances and noting no extreme impacts have been recorded.