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Fast-Casual Stumbles as Younger Diners Cut Visits and Value Chains Gain

Executives cite unemployment, resumed student-loan payments, sluggish wage growth as the drivers.

Overview

  • Chipotle, Cava and Sweetgreen reported fewer visits from 25–35-year-olds, with Sweetgreen saying spending from that cohort fell about 15% in the quarter.
  • Leaders at the chains linked the pullback to rising youth unemployment, the return of student-loan collections and weaker real income growth, which are pushing more meals to groceries and home cooking.
  • Industry data from Revenue Management Solutions show visit frequency fell across quick service, fast casual and full service in the third quarter compared with the prior three months.
  • Value-focused brands including McDonald’s, Chili’s, Domino’s and Burger King drew traffic with aggressive meal deals, as Chili’s highlighted gains among households under $60,000.
  • Investor pressure intensified after earnings, with Benzinga citing steep year-to-date stock declines for Chipotle, Cava and Sweetgreen, as reported Q3 comparable sales ranged from roughly +0.3% at Chipotle to +1.9% at Cava and −9.5% at Sweetgreen.