Overview
- The Federation of American Scientists published its assessment Thursday saying India may have produced and assembled about 190 warheads, including roughly 30 linked to missiles still under production.
- FAS based the estimate on open sources, state-originating data and commercial satellite imagery and used an IPFM figure of roughly 730 kg of weapon-grade plutonium as the fissile-material basis.
- Using an assumed yield of about 4 kilograms of plutonium per warhead, that plutonium stock could theoretically support roughly 140 to 225 warheads, a range that FAS reports as a mathematical—not confirmed—possibility.
- FAS stresses large uncertainties because India’s actual warhead designs, retained plutonium reserves, and the number of operational launchers are not publicly known, and practical stockpile size will be constrained by delivery capacity.
- The Government of India has reaffirmed its no-first-use policy and commitment to credible minimum deterrence, a posture rooted in its 1998 tests that frames how officials present any future growth and that observers say will shape regional monitoring and diplomacy.