Overview

• The Farmers’ Almanac released its 2025–2026 winter outlook under the slogan “Chill, Snow, Repeat,” warning of two major cold snaps in mid-January and mid-February.
• It predicts the coldest outbreaks from the Northern Plains through New England, heavy mountain snow in the Pacific Northwest, frequent snowstorms across the Great Lakes and Northeast, and a wetter-than-average winter for Texas and the Southern Plains.
• The almanac attributes its long-range forecast to a proprietary formula based on solar and lunar cycles, tidal forces and historical weather patterns devised by its pseudonymous forecaster “Caleb Weatherbee.”
• NOAA meteorologists stress that event-specific forecasts months in advance lack proven skill, and independent analyses have found the Almanac’s accuracy for monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts hovers around 50%.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues probabilistic seasonal guidance that, with an emerging La Niña signal, suggests warmer, drier winter conditions for much of the southern U.S., conflicting with the Almanac’s wetter-Texas projection.