Overview

• Speaking in Birmingham, Nigel Farage vowed to halt Channel crossings within two weeks of taking office and to return arrivals en masse.
• Capitalizing on Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner’s resignation, he predicted elections in 2027 and told supporters he would set up a unit to prepare for government.
• Reform UK’s conference drew major firms and industry groups, with reported interest from brands such as TikTok and Airbnb, though several executives voiced discomfort about public association; Heathrow stressed its attendance was not an endorsement.
• Ahead in YouGov polling at roughly 30%, Reform UK sits about 10 points above Labour after a summer dominated by migration messaging.
• Analysts say delivering the party’s migration agenda could require steps like exiting human‑rights conventions and would likely be tied up by courts, and they question the readiness of a party with only a handful of MPs under first‑past‑the‑post.