Overview

• The new YouGov seat-by-seat MRP, based on about 13,000 respondents, projects Reform on 311 seats, Labour on 144, Conservatives on 45, Liberal Democrats on 78, SNP on 37 and Greens on seven, with Plaid on six.
• The projection points to a hung parliament, yet Farage would be best placed to form a government because only he would likely command the most MPs once the Speaker and Sinn Féin absences are factored in.
• YouGov highlights volatility, noting 82 Reform leads under five points and a range that puts Reform roughly between 271 and 342 seats, with Labour between 118 and 185 and Conservatives between 28 and 68.
• Separate Electoral Calculus analysis indicates strong anti‑Reform tactical voting could cut Reform’s tally by around 60 seats, lifting Labour from 119 to 161 and the Conservatives from 36 to 65 in their scenario.
• Three-quarters of Reform’s projected gains come from Labour, with Reform strongest in regions such as the North East and Wales, while Labour’s remaining strength concentrates in London.