Overview
- A roughly 3.9‑ton Falcon 9 upper stage from a Jan. 15, 2025 launch is predicted to collide with the Moon on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, at about 06:35 UTC near the Einstein crater.
- The impact is unplanned and follows orbital evolution caused by solar and gravitational perturbations after the stage delivered two commercial landers to the Moon in early 2025.
- Researchers estimate the strike will release about 11.4 gigajoules of energy and produce a roughly 27–30 meter crater plus an ejecta plume that could loft regolith up to about 100 km.
- Observing the event live will be difficult because it occurs on the Moon’s day side; ground observers in the Americas have the best chance to see a brief flash while NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will supply high‑resolution before‑and‑after images for confirmation.
- Scientists say the predictable mass, speed and time make this a rare chance to calibrate crater and dust models and to press for clearer disposal rules for the growing cislunar traffic.