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FADA’s October Monitor Flags Rising Cattle Prices but Deep Feedlot Losses

Export returns improved after the temporary suspension of duties and a stronger exchange rate.

Overview

  • Calf and steer prices rose 8.1% and 5% in October, outpacing annual inflation, with the steer-to-maize ratio at 14.3 kg/kg, a 19.4% improvement year over year.
  • Feedlots posted a second straight month of losses, with a gross margin of −83,288 pesos per head, a replacement index at 0.85, and corral use at 62.4%.
  • Beef exports accounted for 26.9% of production over 12 months, with August export value at USD 381 million (+11.1% month on month) and China taking 63% of volume and 46% of value.
  • FADA attributes recent export gains in part to Decree 685/2025 that temporarily removed export duties and to a firmer exchange rate, helping capture stronger international prices.
  • A separate SRA study characterizes 2025 as a positive transition with producer margins above historical levels and a shift toward higher‑value markets as U.S. trade measures pressured Brazilian competitors.