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F1 2026 Outlook Divides Paddock: Haas Sees ‘Lottery’ as Williams Plays Down Engine Gap

A full engine‑chassis reset with zero carryover keeps performance unknowns high.

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Overview

  • Deputy chief engineer Jonathan Heal says 2026 could be a “lottery” due to major power‑unit unknowns and the risk of a 2014‑style imbalance.
  • James Vowles argues power‑unit performance is unlikely to produce gaps comparable to 2014, shifting focus to chassis differences.
  • Vowles estimates chassis concepts under the new rules could account for roughly half a second per lap in variation.
  • Stricter 2026 safety standards mean teams cannot carry over 2025 chassis components, forcing clean‑sheet designs.
  • Customer outfits face added dependency as packaging and timelines are dictated by engine suppliers, with Haas citing reliance on Ferrari definitions.