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3w ago

EY Says India Could Become No. 2 Economy in PPP by 2038

The scenario draws on IMF projections that show India growing much faster than the U.S. through 2030.

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Overview

  • EY’s Economy Watch forecasts India’s GDP at $20.7 trillion (PPP) by 2030 and $34.2 trillion by 2038, positioning it second globally in PPP terms.
  • The report assumes average growth of about 6.5% for India versus 2.1% for the U.S. in 2028–2030, based on IMF estimates.
  • EY estimates new U.S. tariffs touch exports equal to roughly 0.9% of India’s GDP, with the growth impact contained to about 0.1 percentage point with countermeasures.
  • Cited strengths include a 2025 median age of 28.8, high savings and investment rates, and government debt projected to fall from 81.3% of GDP in 2024 to 75.8% by 2030.
  • India is already third in PPP terms and is projected to rank third in nominal GDP by 2028 after overtaking Germany, with reforms like GST, IBC, UPI and PLI bolstering the outlook.