Overview

• EY’s August Economy Watch, drawing on IMF forecasts, pegs India’s GDP at $20.7 trillion (PPP) by 2030 and $34.2 trillion by 2038 in constant 2021 international dollars.
• The move to second place in PPP terms assumes India sustains about 6.5% growth versus 2.1% for the U.S. in 2028–2030, as per IMF projections.
• At market exchange rates, EY expects India to overtake Germany to become the third-largest economy by 2028.
• EY cites a youthful median age of 28.8, high savings and investment, and reforms including GST, IBC, UPI and PLI, alongside a projected debt-to-GDP decline from 81.3% in 2024 to 75.8% in 2030.
• EY estimates recently imposed U.S. tariffs could touch exports equal to about 0.9% of GDP, with growth trimmed by roughly 0.1 percentage point if India diversifies exports and strengthens domestic demand.