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2h ago

EY Projects India to Rank No. 2 Globally by 2038 in PPP, No. 3 by 2028 in MER

The new EY outlook, rooted in IMF projections, credits durable domestic fundamentals.

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Overview

  • EY estimates India could reach USD 34.2 trillion in PPP GDP by 2038, with a PPP milestone of USD 20.7 trillion by 2030.
  • The report expects India to become the third-largest economy in market exchange rate terms by 2028, overtaking Germany.
  • Drivers cited include a median age of 28.8 in 2025, a high savings rate, and a government debt-to-GDP ratio projected to fall from 81.3% in 2024 to 75.8% by 2030.
  • EY highlights reforms and investment—GST, IBC, UPI, PLI, heavy infrastructure spending, and adoption of AI, semiconductors, and renewables—as growth enablers.
  • Risks are noted, including potential US tariffs affecting about 0.9% of GDP, with EY estimating the growth impact can be limited to roughly 0.1 percentage point through diversification and stronger domestic demand.