Overview

• EY’s Economy Watch estimates India at $34.2 trillion in 2038 on a PPP basis, surpassing the US if post‑2030 growth tracks IMF forecasts of roughly 6.5% for India versus 2.1% for the US.
• The report pegs India at $20.7 trillion (PPP) by 2030 and reiterates a market‑exchange milestone of overtaking Germany to rank third globally by 2028.
• New 50% US tariffs effective August 27 are expected to hit more than $48 billion of Indian exports, with textiles, gems and jewellery, seafood, leather and footwear most exposed.
• EY estimates goods covered equal nearly 0.9% of India’s GDP but says the drag on GDP growth can be limited to about 0.1 percentage point through export diversification, stronger domestic demand and expanded trade ties.
• Drivers cited include a median age of 28.8 in 2025, high savings and investment, a projected fall in government debt from 81.3% of GDP in 2024 to 75.8% by 2030, and reforms such as GST, IBC, UPI and PLI alongside advances in AI, semiconductors and renewables.