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Extreme Weather Expected for NFL Wild-Card Games

Historical Data Challenges Common Myths About Weather's Impact on Playoff Performance

  • NFL wild-card games this weekend are expected to face extreme weather conditions, with the Miami Dolphins playing the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium where temperatures could plunge to single digits.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers will play in Buffalo, where forecasts predict mid-20s temperatures, 15 mph winds with gusts up to 30 m.p.h., and possibly 1-2 feet of snow falling over the weekend.
  • Despite the common belief that cold and windy conditions lead to low-scoring games, historical data suggests that this is already accounted for in bookmakers' totals, often to an overblown degree.
  • Teams from warm climates or those that play in domes do not necessarily perform poorly in cold weather playoff games, debunking another common myth.
  • Statistical analysis suggests that teams that were lucky in the regular season tend to fall apart in the playoffs, while teams that were unlucky often find their footing.
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