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Extreme Weather Expected for NFL Wild-Card Games

Historical Data Challenges Common Myths About Weather's Impact on Playoff Performance

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Miami Dolphins Cold Weather
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City Chiefs (C) and DeShon Elliott of Miami Dolphins and teammate Jalen Ramsey compete for the ball during the NFL match between Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs at Deutsche Bank Park on November 5, 2023 in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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Overview

  • NFL wild-card games this weekend are expected to face extreme weather conditions, with the Miami Dolphins playing the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium where temperatures could plunge to single digits.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers will play in Buffalo, where forecasts predict mid-20s temperatures, 15 mph winds with gusts up to 30 m.p.h., and possibly 1-2 feet of snow falling over the weekend.
  • Despite the common belief that cold and windy conditions lead to low-scoring games, historical data suggests that this is already accounted for in bookmakers' totals, often to an overblown degree.
  • Teams from warm climates or those that play in domes do not necessarily perform poorly in cold weather playoff games, debunking another common myth.
  • Statistical analysis suggests that teams that were lucky in the regular season tend to fall apart in the playoffs, while teams that were unlucky often find their footing.