Overview
- Peer-reviewed findings in the Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry associate average monthly maximums above about 30–32°C (86–90°F) with a 5–6.7% lower likelihood of meeting basic literacy and numeracy milestones.
- The study merged 2017–2020 UNICEF/MICS Early Childhood Development Index data with ERA5-Land climate records for 19,607 children in Gambia, Georgia, Madagascar, Malawi, the State of Palestine and Sierra Leone.
- A prenatal signal was reported, with first-trimester exposure near 33°C (91°F) linked to an estimated 5.6% lower probability of being developmentally on track.
- Negative associations were strongest for children in economically disadvantaged households, those lacking clean water and sanitation, and those living in urban areas.
- Researchers stress that mechanisms and causality remain uncertain and call for targeted studies and adaptation measures to protect early development as temperatures rise.