Overview
- A peer-reviewed study published in Nature on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026 modeled nearly 1,000 cactus species and found that more than a quarter could lose at least 80 percent of suitable habitat by 2100 when extreme drought is included.
- The research combined new global severe-drought projections with biodiversity databases, field observations and roughly 650,000 community-science records from iNaturalist to produce more realistic forecasts of future ranges.
- Scientists report tangible signs of decline now in the U.S. Southwest, including reduced flowering, stunted saguaro growth and localized plant deaths, showing some impacts are already unfolding.
- Projected losses are worst in key diversity hotspots such as Chile, Peru and northeastern Brazil, and researchers say these climate-driven declines will compound existing threats from habitat destruction and illegal collection.
- Authors expect the results to feed into updated IUCN Red List assessments and to steer conservation responses such as targeted land protection, botanical garden safeguards, and prioritizing species for rescue and restoration.