Overview

• A new analysis in Environmental Research Letters finds the AMOC tipping point is likely to be crossed in the next 10–20 years in many models, with full shutdown typically occurring 50–100 years after the trigger.
• Across extended CMIP6 runs, collapse occurs in about 70% of high‑emission cases, 37% of intermediate cases, and 25% of low‑emission cases.
• A separate Utrecht‑led study reported the circulation could begin shutting down in the 2060s, prompting EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra to call the findings a wake‑up call.
• Models indicate the trigger is a collapse of deep winter convection in the Labrador, Irminger and Nordic seas, which initiates a self‑reinforcing feedback that weakens overturning.
• Researchers note early observational declines in key deep‑mixing regions over the past 5–10 years, while cautioning that few models run beyond 2100 and most omit Greenland meltwater that could further raise risk.