Overview

• The peer‑reviewed study led by Sybren Drijfhout (Environmental Research Letters) extends standard climate models to the years 2300–2500 and finds frequent AMOC shutdowns in long‑range simulations.
• In high‑emission scenarios the circulation collapses in roughly seven of ten runs, with substantial risk persisting under lower emissions (about one in three under moderate pathways and one in five under low).
• Model outputs indicate the system’s tipping point could be reached in the next 10–20 years in many runs, with a full collapse unfolding 50–100 years after that if triggered.
• Projected impacts include colder, stormier winters and drier summers in northwestern Europe, a southward shift of tropical rainfall belts, higher regional sea levels, and major stress on ecosystems and agriculture.
• Researchers note the AMOC appears unusually weak in proxy records, direct monitoring since 2004 is too short to settle trends, and models may understate risks by not fully capturing Greenland meltwater, prompting calls for rapid CO2 cuts.