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Exports and Stimulus Lift South Korea’s Q3 Growth to 1.2%, Fastest in Six Quarters

Unresolved U.S. trade talks pose a tariff risk to the nascent recovery.

Overview

  • Advance Bank of Korea estimates show GDP rose 1.2% quarter on quarter and 1.7% year on year in Q3, the strongest pace since early 2024.
  • Private consumption increased 1.3% from Q2 after supplementary budgets and cash handouts boosted household spending.
  • Exports grew about 1.5% on the quarter led by semiconductors and motor vehicles, while facility investment rebounded 2.4%.
  • The construction sector remained a drag year on year, and the central bank cautioned that the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports will likely grow over time.
  • The finance ministry signaled a lift of the 2025 growth forecast to roughly 1.0% as trade talks with Washington over a 15% tariff cap and a $350 billion investment pledge remain unresolved, with a LeeTrump meeting set during APEC.