Overview
- Economist Carlos Melconian warned Monday that dollars earned in Vaca Muerta and other export sectors are being taken abroad or hoarded by individuals instead of staying in Argentina, citing data that private dollar demand nearly offset the commercial surplus.
- The government reports clear macro progress this month with a return to disinflation, more than US$10 billion of central bank FX purchases, and a secured early‑July bond payment that removed immediate market uncertainty.
- Private and research analysts say the second half could see a drop in FX supply from commercial crop sales and private borrowing, and they urge the government to start pre‑financing roughly US$27 billion of remaining maturities for 2027.
- Macro gains have not spread evenly: energy, mining and exporters are expanding while industry, construction and mass consumption lag and rising delinquency and tight credit keep households from feeling the recovery.
- Policy choices in the months ahead will force a trade‑off between keeping the peso scarce to protect reserves and accepting measured domestic liquidity to revive activity, a dilemma that gains urgency with large debt piles and next year’s election.