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Experts Warn Against Splitting Canada’s Submarine Buy as Ottawa Weighs Hanwha and TKMS

Defence analysts say dividing the order would raise sustainment risk during a time‑pressured replacement of the Victoria class.

Overview

  • Canada has narrowed the contest to two bidders, South Korea’s Hanwha with KSS-III boats and Germany’s TKMS with Type 212CD submarines.
  • Royal Canadian Navy chief Vice-Admiral Angus Topshee says a mixed fleet is supportable but the simplest path is 12 submarines from one supplier to standardize parts and weapons.
  • Experts including David Perry and Philippe Lagassé warn a split buy could weaken Ottawa’s negotiating leverage and require duplicative training and logistics.
  • Deloitte’s Daniel Kerry says choosing both firms could diversify risk and potentially speed deliveries, though costs and industrial effects would weigh heavily.
  • An industry source says officials have privately floated a split for months as the government reviews options, with no decision announced and the Victoria class slated to retire by 2035.