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Experts Recast $1.5 Million as a Retirement Checkpoint, Not a Finish Line

Advisers urge income‑replacement targets over lump sums to account for medical inflation plus longevity risk.

Overview

  • At a 3% withdrawal rate, $1.5 million yields about $45,000 a year, which alongside the average Social Security benefit of roughly $24,000 still leaves many households short of comfortable‑living thresholds in numerous states, with Hawaii near $130,000.
  • Planners recommend targeting a 70%–85% income‑replacement ratio and closing gaps by delaying Social Security, using Roth accounts, considering partial annuitization, and aligning savings with the specific cash‑flow need.
  • Inflation—especially medical inflation historically running about 1.7 percentage points above general inflation—poses a larger long‑run threat to purchasing power than typical market swings.
  • Early‑retirement seekers are advised to keep some earned income or save far more, model 3%–4% annual expense growth, and build a 25% buffer to reduce the risk of depleting assets over multi‑decade retirements.
  • Advisers steer retirees toward personalized, stage‑based budgets and a buckets approach that keeps near‑term cash safe while maintaining long‑term growth exposure, alongside planning for purpose and social connection.