Overview

• NOAA’s CFS model currently projects only a small positive temperature anomaly of roughly 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius for winter 2025/26, which does not indicate an extreme cold season.
• The Climate Prediction Center confirms ongoing La Niña conditions, though experts note its direct influence on European winter temperatures is limited even as short cold snaps remain possible.
• Meteorologists including Dominik Jung and Gernot Schütz caution that the term “Jahrhundertwinter” lacks a scientific definition and that sensational warnings overstate the evidence.
• Forecast confidence for specific cold outbreaks in Central Europe is generally limited to about one to two weeks, underscoring the uncertainty of long-range claims.
• Regional outlooks remain cautious, with NRW expected to start relatively mild in November and a chance of colder episodes later in the season or early 2026, while other local projections of early frost are tentative.