Overview
- Trump again pledged $2,000 rebate checks and suggested income tax could be eliminated based on tariff proceeds, repeating remarks from a Cabinet meeting this week.
- Treasury data show about $195 billion in customs duties for fiscal year 2025 versus nearly $2.7 trillion from individual income taxes.
- Economists say the math does not work, estimating even revenue‑maximizing tariffs would raise under roughly $400 billion a year and calling full replacement of income taxes impossible.
- The CBO now estimates the tariff program will reduce deficits by about $3 trillion over 10 years, a downgrade from earlier projections and far short of funding tax repeal or large rebates.
- Analysts say the White House is mixing actual tariff receipts with multiyear investment pledges that are not federal revenue, as legal challenges continue with a pending Supreme Court ruling after skeptical oral arguments.