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Exit Polls Show Razor-Thin Divide in Polish Presidential Runoff

A slender exit-poll gap could decide Poland’s path within the European Union by granting veto authority to the next president over Prime Minister Tusk’s reforms.

This combination of photos shows Rafal Trzaskowski, left, in Warsaw, Friday, May 9, 2025, and Karol Nawrocki, right, in Warsaw, Poland, Tuesday, May 20, 2025 (AP Photos/Czarek Sokolowski, File)
A combination picture shows two leading candidates in the Polish presidential election, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, Civic Coalition presidential candidate, smiling during a visit to the Weglewski farm, ahead of the second round of Polish presidential election, in Buczek, May 29, 2025, and Polish presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the main opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, reacting during his final rally, ahead of the second round of presidential election, in Biala Podlaska, Poland, May 30, 2025. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel
A man rides a bicycle past presidential campaign posters for liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski on Friday May 30, 2025, in Dziekanow Lesny , near Warsaw Poland. (AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski)

Overview

  • An Ipsos exit poll projects Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski at 50.3% and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki at 49.7%, within a 2-point margin of error.
  • Both candidates have claimed victory in early election night statements in the tight contest.
  • The state electoral commission is scheduled to announce official results on Monday, June 2, with a possible early ‘late poll’ blending counts and surveys.
  • The incoming president will hold veto power that can advance or block key legislation on judicial independence, social issues and EU integration under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government.
  • Karol Nawrocki’s campaign has been bolstered by support from former U.S. President Donald Trump and CPAC representatives, highlighting significant international interest.