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Exit Polls Show Razor-Thin Divide in Polish Presidential Runoff

A slender exit-poll gap could decide Poland’s path within the European Union by granting veto authority to the next president over Prime Minister Tusk’s reforms.

Overview

  • An Ipsos exit poll projects Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski at 50.3% and conservative historian Karol Nawrocki at 49.7%, within a 2-point margin of error.
  • Both candidates have claimed victory in early election night statements in the tight contest.
  • The state electoral commission is scheduled to announce official results on Monday, June 2, with a possible early ‘late poll’ blending counts and surveys.
  • The incoming president will hold veto power that can advance or block key legislation on judicial independence, social issues and EU integration under Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government.
  • Karol Nawrocki’s campaign has been bolstered by support from former U.S. President Donald Trump and CPAC representatives, highlighting significant international interest.