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yesterday

Exit Polls Forecast Ruling Coalition Will Lose Upper House Majority

Projections of fewer than 50 seats for the LDP-Komeito bloc heighten calls to replace Prime Minister Ishiba, complicating looming US tariff negotiations.

Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), raises his fist from atop the campaigning bus on the last day of campaigning for the July 20 upper house election, in Tokyo, Japan July 19, 2025. REUTERS/Manami Yamada
Image
Election officials count votes at a ballot counting centre for Japan's upper house election in Tokyo, Japan, July 20, 2025. REUTERS/Manami Yamada
Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, center, attends an election campaign event in support of his party's candidates on the eve of the July 20 Upper House election, in Tokyo, Saturday, July 19, 2025. (AP Photo/Louise Delmotte)

Overview

  • Exit polls forecast the LDP-Komeito coalition will win 32 to 51 of 125 contested seats, likely short of the 50 needed to keep its Upper House majority.
  • A setback would intensify internal LDP pressure for Ishiba to step down, with analysts warning his leadership could be untenable if his coalition cannot command a majority in both chambers.
  • Soaring inflation and a doubling of rice prices have become top voter grievances, boosting smaller parties that promise tax cuts and welfare spending.
  • Sanseito, the hard-right populist party with its “Japanese First” agenda, is on track to win 10 to 15 seats by drawing support from disaffected LDP backers.
  • An August 1 deadline to strike a trade deal with the US or face 25% tariffs on key exports now looms over a government with diminished parliamentary sway.