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Exceltur Lifts 2026 Spain Tourism Outlook to 2.5% as War Diverts Visitors

The lobby ties the outlook to a short, contained conflict in the Middle East.

Overview

  • Exceltur estimates about €4.24 billion in extra tourism receipts from travelers redirecting to Spain and a €4.045 billion hit from higher prices, leaving a net gain of €194 million and a sector total of €227.157 billion.
  • The revision nudges expected real growth for 2026 to 2.5%, up from 2.4% forecast in January and slightly above the Bank of Spain’s 2.3% estimate for the broader economy.
  • Hotel groups report stronger spring demand, with seaside bookings up as much as 5.2%, while transport firms expect a 1.6% sales drop and long‑haul travel agencies see slower business.
  • Tourism entered 2026 with steady momentum, as first‑quarter activity grew 2.1% in real terms, sales rose 4%, and sector jobs reached more than 2.2 million affiliates.
  • Exceltur warns that higher energy costs can squeeze household budgets and cut trips, and it says any wider or longer conflict would likely erase the limited upside.