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Exceltur Cuts Spain Tourism Growth Outlook to 2.8% for 2025 as Sector’s Economic Lift Eases

Exceltur points to stagnant domestic travel as the main drag.

Overview

  • Tourism’s contribution to the increase in Spain’s real value added is now projected at 13%, down from roughly 52% during 2021–2024.
  • Exceltur cites weaker demand from key European markets—Germany, Italy and France—alongside flat Spanish overnight stays in regulated accommodation versus 2023 and 2024.
  • Companies reported a positive summer but slower momentum, with Q3 growth at 2.8% compared with 4.5% in the previous quarter.
  • Member surveys indicate a further easing to about 2% growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.
  • Regional results diverged, with coastal destinations outperforming many heat‑hit interior cities and leaders including La Rioja (+13.1%), both Castillas (~+11%) and País Vasco (+10.4%), while Madrid (+1.7%) and Catalonia (+0.8%) slowed; Castilla y León is the only region expecting a Q4 sales decline (-1.1%).