Overview

• Speaking at a CIJUF event, Alejandro Werner estimated public debt at 58%–62% of GDP by 2030 using the RFSP measure.
• The projection contrasts with CGPE 2026, which foresees expanded debt at 52.3% of GDP in 2030 with a 3% deficit.
• SHCP now puts this year’s deficit at 4.3% of GDP versus a 3.9% target, and Werner called next year’s 4.1% plan optimistic on growth and spending.
• Werner expects deficits to stay above 4% for several years, reaching about 4.5% in an electoral year before any forced adjustment.
• He said a Pemex rescue is likely to sit outside RFSP accounting yet would be serviced as public debt, framing the outlook as a gradual strain rather than a crisis.