Overview

• Kameda told Reuters the next move is most likely in December or January, contingent on clearer evidence of sustainable wage gains.
• He said the Bank of Japan probably would have stayed on hold in October because the extent of tariff damage to corporate wage plans is still unclear.
• Recent readings, including the tankan survey, indicate tariffs are pressuring exports and profits but have not deterred capital expenditure.
• Although some board members cite stubborn food prices to argue for an earlier hike, decisions are seen hinging on risk assessments linked to wages.
• The Oct. 29–30 meeting will bring updated growth and inflation projections as markets recalibrate after Sanae Takaichi’s victory lifted stocks and weakened the yen.