Overview
- Researchers modeled seven global net zero timelines from 2030 to 2060 and found heatwaves grow systematically hotter, longer and more frequent with each five‑year delay.
- The ACCESS‑ESM1‑5 simulations, published in Environmental Research: Climate, were run 1,000 years and showed no return toward preindustrial heatwave conditions after net zero.
- Countries near the equator are projected to experience heatwaves that break today’s records at least annually if net zero slips to 2050 or later.
- The authors urge reaching global net zero by about 2040 to limit the worst outcomes, and they warn adaptation of infrastructure, housing and health systems will span centuries.
- Experts flag uncertainties tied to model resolution and rainfall processes, and the study notes Southern Ocean warming could further intensify extremes even after net zero.