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Evaluators Keep Arch Manning in QB1 Mix as Draft Decision Nears

Sources close to the family expect a return to Texas, with an underclassman declaration deadline of Jan. 14.

Overview

  • Three college scouts and two NFL executives told reporters Manning would be a first-round pick if he declares, with three saying he could be the first quarterback taken.
  • Evaluators describe him as a high-upside project who would benefit from sitting behind a veteran, citing Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love as development models.
  • Manning’s first season as a starter was uneven but improved, finishing at 61.4% passing for 2,942 yards with 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions, plus 244 rushing yards and eight scores.
  • Assessments of a softer 2026 quarterback class, with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza the lone consensus top-10 QB, bolster Manning’s relative standing.
  • Most indications point to him returning to Texas, with several sources anticipating a 2027 draft entry if he waits, though some team scenarios—such as the Rams grooming him behind Matthew Stafford—were floated if he turns pro.