Overview
- China renewed its car trade‑in subsidy ahead of schedule, offering up to 20,000 yuan per replacement vehicle and covering 12% of an EV’s price, in a move confirmed by a joint NDRC–Finance Ministry circular.
- Analysts report China’s EV boom is slowing with a persistent price war; BYD and Tesla posted year‑to‑date sales declines, NEVs reached 59.4% of November sales, and forecasts point to consolidation as growth moderates in 2026.
- Chinese automakers are accelerating overseas expansion to offset softer home demand, with BYD preparing Hungarian production for 2026 and Geely broadening exports across Europe and Asia.
- Western Europe faces growing pressure from low‑cost Chinese imports, with Chinese EV share estimated at 11.0% in 2025 and more gains expected, a trend that is likely to depress prices and margins for European brands.
- U.S. EV momentum faded after a tax‑credit‑driven Q3 spike, as Q4 sales plunged 46% from Q3 and 37% year over year, with 2025 share projected at 7.8% alongside policy rollbacks and a shortage of sub‑$40,000 models until 2026–27.