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2h ago

EV Tax Credits Expire, Record Q3 Deliveries Give Way to Fears of a Sales Slump

With federal support gone, companies are turning to rebates plus financing tactics to soften an expected demand drop.

The EV Tax Credit Is Dead. Here's 5 Predictions For What Happens Next: Industry Outlook
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Overview

  • Treasury’s consumer EV incentives ended Sept. 30, closing credits worth up to $7,500 for new vehicles and $4,000 for used models.
  • Buyers rushed to beat the cutoff, with Tesla delivering 497,099 vehicles in Q3 (up 29% from Q2 and about 7% year over year) and Rivian posting a nearly 32% delivery jump to 13,201, as analysts say EVs likely reached a record ~10% of U.S. sales for the quarter.
  • Automakers used pre-deadline workarounds, including Ford and GM captive-finance down payments on dealer stock to lock in credits, and are now offering their own incentives such as Tesla’s roughly $6,500 discounts and Hyundai’s $7,500–$9,800 offers.
  • Ford CEO Jim Farley warned U.S. EV market share could slide toward about 5% from roughly 10%–12%, as analysts flag a near-term sales dip and rising cost pressures from parts tariffs that are steering some companies toward hybrids.
  • Longer-term risks are mounting, with Princeton’s Zero Lab estimating BEV sales could be about 40% lower by 2030 without federal support, California declining to backfill the credits, related solar and charging incentives scheduled to end, and battery makers confronting surplus capacity and delayed projects.