Overview

• Federal incentives of up to $7,500 for new EVs and $4,000 for used models expire Sept. 30 under the One Big Beautiful Bill.
• Cox Automotive projects about 410,000 EVs sold in Q3 for roughly a 10% market share, with August and September showing sharp gains.
• IRS guidance allows buyers to lock in the credit with a binding contract and payment by Sept. 30 even if delivery occurs later.
• Dealers report thinning inventories as automakers push aggressive leases, rebates and financing, while some brands slow production or cancel EV models.
• Analysts expect a post-deadline sales dip before a potential 2026 rebound as lower-priced models arrive, and California says it will not replace the federal rebate.