Overview

• The $7,500 new-vehicle and $4,000 used-vehicle federal EV credits expire Sept. 30 under the Trump-backed tax-and-spending law passed in July.
• Cox Automotive projects roughly 410,000 EVs sold in Q3 for a 10% market share, and J.D. Power says September sales reached 12.2% of new purchases as inventories tightened.
• Per dealer guidance citing IRS rules, buyers who sign a purchase contract and make required payments by Sept. 30 can still claim the incentive on vehicles delivered afterward.
• Automakers and dealers are leaning on rebates, leases and financing offers, with August EV transaction prices averaging slightly below gas cars and strong shopper interest reported by Cars.com and CARFAX.
• Analysts expect sales to soften in Q4, manufacturers to adjust output or pricing, and some regions like Tennessee to feel job impacts, with forecasts pointing to a rebound later in 2026 as new lower-priced models arrive.