Overview

• The analysis projects cumulative economic damage of about €126 billion by 2029 after this summer’s shocks shaved roughly 0.26% off 2024 EU output.
• Drought accounted for the largest share of losses at an estimated €29.4 billion, with heat waves at €6.8 billion and floods at €6.5 billion.
• Relative hits were heaviest in the Mediterranean, with Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Bulgaria each losing more than 1% of 2024 gross value added, followed by Spain, Italy and Portugal.
• The rapid, non–peer-reviewed study by University of Mannheim and ECB economists used historical links between weather and economic activity to capture productivity impacts and spillovers beyond direct damage.
• Authors and outside experts say the figures likely understate the true toll because record wildfires and compounding supply‑chain effects were excluded, as separate attribution studies find climate change has sharply increased the odds and intensity of such extremes.