Overview

• Preliminary Eurostat data show headline inflation rose two tenths in September, lifted by a smaller year‑over‑year drop in energy prices (-0.4% versus -2.0% in August).
• Services inflation edged up to 3.2%, while inflation excluding energy held at 2.5% and the core rate excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco stayed at 2.3%.
• Country gaps remain wide, with Estonia at 5.2%, Croatia and Slovakia at 4.6%, Spain at 3.0% and Cyprus at 0.0%, complicating a one‑size‑fits‑all policy.
• Market commentary points to lower odds of additional ECB rate cuts before year‑end given the setback in disinflation and resilient services prices.
• In Argentina, INDEC will publish September CPI on October 14 as the central bank’s survey pegs it near 1.8%, while a Córdoba retailer survey reports 2.43% with signs of worsening food security.