Overview
- The University of Michigan Survey, published Aug. 28, put final U.S. consumer sentiment at 51.7 for August, down from 55.2 in July and about 11% below last year.
- Euro area economic confidence improved to 98.4 in August with services and industrial confidence both stronger and consumer confidence steady at -15.5.
- Short-term inflation expectations rose in the euro area to 33.0 while U.S. one-year inflation expectations ticked down to 4.0% and five-year expectations remained anchored at 3.3%.
- Both surveys linked worsening geopolitical risk from the U.S.–Iran conflict to higher gasoline and energy price expectations and to weaker household outlooks.
- Markets are pricing a likely ECB rate rise in September because of persistent near-term inflation risks, which could raise borrowing costs for households and businesses and slow demand.