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European Models Lift Odds of 'Super' El Niño by Fall 2026

NOAA signals El Niño is likely by summer under high spring uncertainty.

People flock Baker Beach near the Golden Gate Bridge as heat advisory issued in San Francisco, California, on March 16.
People gather to watch the sunset at La Jolla's Windansea Beach during a winter heat wave on January 31, 2026 in San Diego, California.
Some experts believe a strong incoming El Niño would bring a larger-than-usual amount of precipitation to California and the Southwest.
A person wears a hat for shade under the morning sun while walking along The Strand in Redondo Beach, California on March 20, 2026, during a heat wave. A record early heat wave striking the west of the United States on March 20 is a one-in-500-years type event and all but certainly the result of human-caused climate change, experts say. The heat has been toppling records this week and was set to continue into the weekend across western cities, expanding eastward. (Photo by Patrick T. Fallon / AFP via Getty Images)

Overview

  • The leading European ensemble outlook, highlighted Tuesday, now points to a much higher chance of a very strong El Niño by fall, with some guidance near 75% for major Pacific warming by October.
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center pegs the odds of El Niño at 62% for June to August and estimates a 17% chance of a strong event in August to October that rises to 33% in October to December.
  • A powerful El Niño would likely dampen the Atlantic hurricane season by boosting upper‑level wind shear that disrupts storms, though a later onset would limit that influence this year.
  • A strong event can shift rain belts worldwide, bringing wetter conditions to the southern United States and drier weather across parts of the North and Midwest, while raising drought risk in India and Australia and flood risk in Peru and East Africa.
  • Forecasters caution that predictions made in spring are less reliable and say the next few months of ocean‑atmosphere coupling—driven by a warm subsurface pool and bursts of westerly winds—will determine the timing and strength, with any strong outcome also raising the chance of record global heat in 2026 or 2027.