Overview
- Front‑month TTF futures have climbed above €100 per megawatt‑hour and day‑ahead spot gas briefly exceeded $1,200 per 1,000 cubic meters, reflecting steep short‑term price moves on Friday.
- European gas inventories are near 74–75% full, below last year and the five‑year average, leaving little buffer as the heating season begins.
- Spot LNG averages have risen roughly 6% week‑on‑week to about $32 per mmBtu, driven by extended QatarEnergy force majeure, renewed attacks in the Middle East, and longer shipping routes that lengthen delivery times.
- Freight and crude premiums remain far above pre‑conflict levels, Russian Urals discounts have narrowed to around $2 per barrel versus Brent, and these cost increases are squeezing Indian refiners and OMCs with steep retail fuel losses.
- Analysts and Russian officials warn that a colder winter would force Europe to compete with Asia for LNG cargoes, pushing prices higher and creating broader economic strain similar to the 2022 gas shock.