Overview
- Front-month TTF futures jumped about 13% on January 16 to roughly $452 per 1,000 cubic meters, the highest level since June 2025, according to ICE data.
- LNG send-out reached a daily record of 486 million cubic meters on January 14, and flows over January 1–14 totaled 5.7 billion cubic meters, the most since records began, Gas Infrastructure Europe reported.
- EU underground storage was 51.87% full, about 15 percentage points below the five-year average, after roughly 39 bcm of withdrawals since October 13 (net 34 bcm).
- Analysts cited a sharp cold snap, weaker wind generation, storm-related nuclear outages in France, and supply concerns linked to tensions around Iran as drivers of the tighter balance.
- Forecasts reported by RIA suggest average 2026 prices could settle around $350–$400 per 1,000 cubic meters with elevated volatility, though opinions differ on the likelihood of brief spikes above $500.